New iPad Predictions before the rush

Well I was a little behind the curve on the new iPhone features, so I am hoping to be able to be first out of the block with new iPad predictions.

OK, so first I have to remind everyone that I work for AT&T and I have no insights into the AT&T/Apple relationship or Apple’s product plans. I’m just a geek who likes to pontificate on technology.

I expect Apple to announce new iPads with both front and rear facing cameras (like the iPhone). The existing iPad will be renamed the iPad Classic and they will also announce smaller form factor iPads called the iPad Mini and iPad Nano. No the naming schemes are not original, but they do have a product history.

There will be a price reduction for the “iPad Classic”, i.e. fire sale, with the new iPad at the same price point ($499 64GB to 128GB and 9.7” diagonal screen). I think the iPad Nano will replace the iPod Touch at the low end of the price point ($199 32GB and $299 64GB 3.5” diagonal screen) and the iPad Mini at ($399 64GB 6.5” diagonal screen). Facetime will be included on all iPads, the Mini may offer an AT&T data plan, but the Nano will be Wi-Fi only. All of the iPads may also include the new Retina display.

I expect the new products to be announced with the new iPods. And what can I say about the new iPods? More memory, new colors, and Retina display, oh and of course no more iPod Touch.

And, in closing, I will include one more rant on the Verizon iPhone rumor, will not happen as long as Verizon’s 4G network is in limited deployment. Having an iPhone on another announced dead-end technology (Verizon’s 3G Network) is like CISCO announcing a new product for Token Ring networks. Would your company do this?

So there seemed to be a lot of surprise over the announcement that Android OS based-phones sold more than the iPhone, and somehow this was a surprise? There are more than two dozen manufacturers of Android devices and one iPhone OS based phone.

For me it is somewhat reminiscent of the 80s when everyone was surprised that PCs were outselling the .Apple Macintosh. Macs were selling maybe thousands a month and PCs were selling hundreds of thousands a month, guess who won that marketing battle.

However, there is one difference between the 1980s and today. In the 1980s the disk operating system (i.e. DOS) had a single user interface and in only one version, with upgrades to back versions available. Android however; is on the market in multiple versions and multiple interfaces and what seems to be limited upgrade capability that could depend on the vendor. Does that mean it will fail? I don’t think so.

The application market for Android phones could suffer with developers having to support multiple versions of their applications, features and interfaces.

Is anyone really surprised that an OS that is “free” or requires a minimal investment is more popular than one you have to pay for or that you cannot have access to? Is there something wrong in my logic?

Also, is the cell phone market being measured by Operating Systems or manufacturers? You have multiple Research in Motion phones (selling the same basic phone), multiple generations of iPhones and multiple phones supported by both Microsoft and Android operating systems. Add HP in the mix with its recent purchase of Palm and the cell phone market will probably get even more fractured.

Historically, the cell phone market was measured one phone against another, i.e. Apple’s iPhone against RIM’s Blackberry, not one OS against the other. I am not sure what future statistics will be quoted, but if the Android OS continues to be a somewhat fractured market with different versions and interfaces, should an OS-based market share end up being the measurement standard?

iPhone predictions and Flash in the pan ….

IPhone … old news?


I had penned the following predictions just as the current iPhone-gate broke. I will stand behind my predictions – as some may be shown as correct, others not so much, but it would not be accurate to change them before the official release. My disclaimer still stands, while I work for AT&T, I have no special access to Apple’s plans or AT&T’s relationship with Apple. The following statements are my opinion only, with no input or validation from my employer.

I do not believe that the iPhone will offer an expandable memory option. Apple has yet to offer it on any other iPod or the newly released iPad, so I do not expect them to offer it on the iPhone. I expect the memory will expand to 64GB and a 128GB model may be available as well.

The screen size could grow a little to support a 4 inch diagonal screen with 720p resolution. I am not sure if that is going to change the overall iPhone’s dimensions (slightly), although by narrowing the bands at the top and bottom of the current model a 4 inch (diagonal) screen might fit. This would allow Apple to match the competition’s capabilities. I expect it to use the same backlit IPS display technology of the recently announced iPad, although with some type of outside screen overlay.

If the dimensions change, the iPhone may also get a little thicker or wider to support longer battery life. This would help with video recording, playback and recording. A pico projector would be definite game changer although not expected.
The camera will increase to either 6 or 8 megapixels and it will have a front facing camera with a video conferencing capability as a later update.

Data speed may be able to exceed current HSPA 7.2, in preparation for LTE (4G) deployment, and may be enforced through a software limitation.

I would expect Apple to use its own processor chip, as it did in the iPad, although it may not be exactly the same chip. Finally, in keeping with recent Apple product releases, no removable battery and it will only be available on AT&T’s network (re-read disclaimer above).

Flash in the pan …

And a final closing thought on the Apple – Adobe skirmish. I believe that Steve Jobs got tired of answering the “when will Flash be enabled on the” insert your Apple platform here. So he wrote a note telling everyone his thinking as to why it Flash will not be allowed, suddenly everyone was up in arms.

Apple has always put the “user experience” first in everything that they do. So when evaluating if Flash should be deployed on Apple’s portable devices, Apple may have run some tests and determined that it would impact the user experience in a negative manner. One of the reasonable questions would be what, if any, exchanges between Apple and Adobe have taken place discussing these performance concerns.

Flash will be allowed on the Android platform and it may be shown if Apple’s objections to Flash are reasonable.

iPad as a business tool?

Way back in the 1980's, I was working for a three letter company that has since been acquired by a two letter company. The project was an executive workstation based on the phrase "Mash a button – get an answer" (MABGA). The theory being that an executive would be looking at something on his computer and instead of entering a command or choosing something from a menu. Instead the system would present the executive with one or two choices and all he had to do was "mash a button" and whatever he wanted, print, save, or open another document/file it would happen.

The iPad seems to be well suited to the MABGA concept, for example:

• An executive dashboard could display specific metrics.
  
• Want to dig deeper? Mash the icon
  
• Print the data? Mash the icon
  
• Open related information? Mash the icon
  

Of course programming the interface to the database operating the interface is a little more complex, but I expect someone will do it.

Will the iPad penetrate the business environment? Mash the icon.