Fast is never, fast enough - iPad2

The iPad2 is not a 4G device and I think most of the geek prognosticators are somewhat surprised. Despite all of the 4G ads you see on TV, and the fact that 4G has been redefined, coverage with either AT&T (my employer) or Verizon is not widely deployed. So if you as a vendor were deploying a new wireless data only device today, would you make it 4G capable? Even the Motorola Xoom, which many state is 4G capable, requires a hardware upgrade to make it 4G ready. Ubiquitous 4G service really will not be available in the U.S. until early to mid 2013 from all service providers.

What is the big deal anyway? Yes, it would make the iPad2 somewhat future proof, but at what cost? The iPad2 is less than a $1,000 device and becomes a “hand-me-down” device.

Even though the title of my blog is “Fast is never, fast enough”, I do not understand the obsession with speed. I’ve always said that response time is a function of perception and reality, and it is not always related to data. We eat at “fast food” restaurants that do a lot of research on how to speed up service. And even at Sunday worship services, we get upset if the pastor’s sermon runs a little long and the service creeps past the 1 hour mark.

But I think we need to put things in perspective. Apple is offering a device that can communicate from almost anywhere for less than $850.00 (and in some locales that may include tax). Do we really care if it downloads a file in 15 seconds versus 45? And do not forget that “fast” 4G download speeds depend on a number of factors such as , number of cell phone towers are in the vicinity, number of users are sharing the towers, and the bandwidth that to connects the towers to the Internet or the carrier's network.

I do not have an iPad, but I doubt if what I would be downloading is that critical that an additional few minutes would make that much of a difference. So buy an iPad2 today, enjoy it for the next two years and then upgrade to a new one, it will be worth it.

New iPad Predictions before the rush

Well I was a little behind the curve on the new iPhone features, so I am hoping to be able to be first out of the block with new iPad predictions.

OK, so first I have to remind everyone that I work for AT&T and I have no insights into the AT&T/Apple relationship or Apple’s product plans. I’m just a geek who likes to pontificate on technology.

I expect Apple to announce new iPads with both front and rear facing cameras (like the iPhone). The existing iPad will be renamed the iPad Classic and they will also announce smaller form factor iPads called the iPad Mini and iPad Nano. No the naming schemes are not original, but they do have a product history.

There will be a price reduction for the “iPad Classic”, i.e. fire sale, with the new iPad at the same price point ($499 64GB to 128GB and 9.7” diagonal screen). I think the iPad Nano will replace the iPod Touch at the low end of the price point ($199 32GB and $299 64GB 3.5” diagonal screen) and the iPad Mini at ($399 64GB 6.5” diagonal screen). Facetime will be included on all iPads, the Mini may offer an AT&T data plan, but the Nano will be Wi-Fi only. All of the iPads may also include the new Retina display.

I expect the new products to be announced with the new iPods. And what can I say about the new iPods? More memory, new colors, and Retina display, oh and of course no more iPod Touch.

And, in closing, I will include one more rant on the Verizon iPhone rumor, will not happen as long as Verizon’s 4G network is in limited deployment. Having an iPhone on another announced dead-end technology (Verizon’s 3G Network) is like CISCO announcing a new product for Token Ring networks. Would your company do this?

So there seemed to be a lot of surprise over the announcement that Android OS based-phones sold more than the iPhone, and somehow this was a surprise? There are more than two dozen manufacturers of Android devices and one iPhone OS based phone.

For me it is somewhat reminiscent of the 80s when everyone was surprised that PCs were outselling the .Apple Macintosh. Macs were selling maybe thousands a month and PCs were selling hundreds of thousands a month, guess who won that marketing battle.

However, there is one difference between the 1980s and today. In the 1980s the disk operating system (i.e. DOS) had a single user interface and in only one version, with upgrades to back versions available. Android however; is on the market in multiple versions and multiple interfaces and what seems to be limited upgrade capability that could depend on the vendor. Does that mean it will fail? I don’t think so.

The application market for Android phones could suffer with developers having to support multiple versions of their applications, features and interfaces.

Is anyone really surprised that an OS that is “free” or requires a minimal investment is more popular than one you have to pay for or that you cannot have access to? Is there something wrong in my logic?

Also, is the cell phone market being measured by Operating Systems or manufacturers? You have multiple Research in Motion phones (selling the same basic phone), multiple generations of iPhones and multiple phones supported by both Microsoft and Android operating systems. Add HP in the mix with its recent purchase of Palm and the cell phone market will probably get even more fractured.

Historically, the cell phone market was measured one phone against another, i.e. Apple’s iPhone against RIM’s Blackberry, not one OS against the other. I am not sure what future statistics will be quoted, but if the Android OS continues to be a somewhat fractured market with different versions and interfaces, should an OS-based market share end up being the measurement standard?

iPhone predictions and Flash in the pan ….

IPhone … old news?


I had penned the following predictions just as the current iPhone-gate broke. I will stand behind my predictions – as some may be shown as correct, others not so much, but it would not be accurate to change them before the official release. My disclaimer still stands, while I work for AT&T, I have no special access to Apple’s plans or AT&T’s relationship with Apple. The following statements are my opinion only, with no input or validation from my employer.

I do not believe that the iPhone will offer an expandable memory option. Apple has yet to offer it on any other iPod or the newly released iPad, so I do not expect them to offer it on the iPhone. I expect the memory will expand to 64GB and a 128GB model may be available as well.

The screen size could grow a little to support a 4 inch diagonal screen with 720p resolution. I am not sure if that is going to change the overall iPhone’s dimensions (slightly), although by narrowing the bands at the top and bottom of the current model a 4 inch (diagonal) screen might fit. This would allow Apple to match the competition’s capabilities. I expect it to use the same backlit IPS display technology of the recently announced iPad, although with some type of outside screen overlay.

If the dimensions change, the iPhone may also get a little thicker or wider to support longer battery life. This would help with video recording, playback and recording. A pico projector would be definite game changer although not expected.
The camera will increase to either 6 or 8 megapixels and it will have a front facing camera with a video conferencing capability as a later update.

Data speed may be able to exceed current HSPA 7.2, in preparation for LTE (4G) deployment, and may be enforced through a software limitation.

I would expect Apple to use its own processor chip, as it did in the iPad, although it may not be exactly the same chip. Finally, in keeping with recent Apple product releases, no removable battery and it will only be available on AT&T’s network (re-read disclaimer above).

Flash in the pan …

And a final closing thought on the Apple – Adobe skirmish. I believe that Steve Jobs got tired of answering the “when will Flash be enabled on the” insert your Apple platform here. So he wrote a note telling everyone his thinking as to why it Flash will not be allowed, suddenly everyone was up in arms.

Apple has always put the “user experience” first in everything that they do. So when evaluating if Flash should be deployed on Apple’s portable devices, Apple may have run some tests and determined that it would impact the user experience in a negative manner. One of the reasonable questions would be what, if any, exchanges between Apple and Adobe have taken place discussing these performance concerns.

Flash will be allowed on the Android platform and it may be shown if Apple’s objections to Flash are reasonable.

iPad as a business tool?

Way back in the 1980's, I was working for a three letter company that has since been acquired by a two letter company. The project was an executive workstation based on the phrase "Mash a button – get an answer" (MABGA). The theory being that an executive would be looking at something on his computer and instead of entering a command or choosing something from a menu. Instead the system would present the executive with one or two choices and all he had to do was "mash a button" and whatever he wanted, print, save, or open another document/file it would happen.

The iPad seems to be well suited to the MABGA concept, for example:

• An executive dashboard could display specific metrics.
  
• Want to dig deeper? Mash the icon
  
• Print the data? Mash the icon
  
• Open related information? Mash the icon
  

Of course programming the interface to the database operating the interface is a little more complex, but I expect someone will do it.

Will the iPad penetrate the business environment? Mash the icon.

Steve Jobs is no Britney Spears …. when it comes to privacy

On June 20, 2009, Steve Jobs has a liver transplant. How do I know this? Because the Wall St. Journal printed a story that he received a liver transplant in Tennessee.

The question that I have is, how did the Wall St. Journal find out?

In 2006, the National Enquirer obtained Britney Spears’ medical information from a UCLA Medical Center administrative specialist. The paper paid the employee more than $4,600 for the actress's medical information. The employee pleaded guilty to a felony charge of violating federal medical privacy laws for commercial purposes.

As proper disclosure, I do not own Apple stock, although members of my family do, and to be frank, the amount of stock is not material.

Is anyone investigating how Steve Jobs’ medical information somehow ended up in the Wall St. Journal? Doesn’t he deserve the same level of privacy as Britney Spears?

On June 23, 2009, the Methodist University Hospital in Memphis, TN announced, with Steve Jobs permission, that it was the hospital where Steve Jobs’ liver transplant was done. One of the things that bothers me is why did the hospital have to disclose that it was where the operation was performed? Was it overwhelmed by press inquires? The Wall St. Journal article indicated that Methodist University Hospital was one to two hospitals in Tennessee that could have performed the operation. How much chaos did this article caused this institution?

How much of our personal lives do we have to have to give up because of where we end up in life?

I am somewhat bothered that I’ve asked many more questions that are going unanswered. I’m also bothered that it somehow occurred to me to compare Steve Jobs and Britney Spears. And in closing, I wonder if the Wall St. Journal understands the chaos that it caused?

Lack of training leads to crimes

So, I was working with a client whose employees were committing third degree felonies on an alarmingly regular basis. A third degree felony is punishable by up to five years in prison, five years probation, and a $5,000 fine. The “crime” committed, was the recording of business calls without notifying both all parties on outgoing calls.

In-bound call notification is somewhat easy, as you have a recording up front notifying everyone that they are on a recorded line. However, out –bound call notification is dependent upon the agent. In this case, the first person that answered the call was notified that it was recorded, however, the next person may not have been notified. The lack of notification is discovered by the auditing of telephone calls by supervisors.

As I reported to the client, the problem begins in the hiring process. Employees are given no training and only read a document that describes the notification requirement and agrees to notify those called by signing the document. Also, the employee development plan has no provisions for recorded call notification. There are no standards in place to say that an employee making the calls need to be 100% in compliance with the notification policy. The supervisors also are provided no guidance on how to remediate the issue.

My recommendation was to put in place performance criteria into the employee’s development plan. Create a remediation training program and explain to the employees the severity of the violation and its punishment.

If an organization does not educate its employees on why specific policies and procedures exist, then management has to live with the consequences. Putting in policies and procedures in place without such education places the entire organization and its reputation at risk.